Quote:
Originally Posted by Vad
Mat,
About your strategy. Can you clarify where is the range of winnings/loses comes from? It seems to mee like your strategy only minimizes the possible losses but there can't be any guarantee that you won't bust your deposit (even with %1 possibilty, it's much higher).
Is there any mathematical model for calculating such ranges ?
As for me, I've lost $90 out of $100 deposited right after 2 hours of playing blackjack. Than I got careless and made higher bets ($2-$5) . Finally im in a surplus of $200 . Just luck!  |
The expected range for the winnings is calculated at 1 Standard deviation from the actual EV of playing the bonus as suggested. so most of the time your results should fall within the range if you stick to the bet size suggested. there will always be the odd freak result though, in 3 years of bonus hunting in the style of that article I've seen swings of plus and minus up to 500 betting units on rare occasions (although one of my big losses I'm still convinced was rigged software)
You are correct, there is no guarantee of not busting your deposit, blackjack is a very high variance game, and large up and downswings are common but by being careful to play under the right bonuses and stay within your bankroll it is very possible to come out ahead in the long run.
This is gambling after all, but what we are basically doing here is only gambling when the odds are in our favour rather than in the houses favour.
Mat