fold equity rush poker question NEED INPUT

[UIIIU]

ok so for the past couple of days i have really been thinking hard about this concept and wondering what you guys think about it. ok first off i am only talking about rush poker cash games on Full tilt.

Ive been messing around in the nl5 and nl10 games and raising every unopened pot to 3x the bb. The only criteria for the raise is no one can limp before me and there cant be a raise before me. Now doing this im seeing the blinds folded to me arounnd 20% of the time, if someone 3 bets me i fold if im holding a weak hand and it is a substantial re raise, but will usually call regardless of my hand if the bet is less than half my opening raise.

Now if someone just calls my raise i will c bet the flop around 70-80% of the time, getting a fold around 60% of the time. So around 80% of the time i take down the pot without a showdown 15 cents if the blinds are folded and around 45 cents if it goes to the flop. Now if it goes to the turn i will usually slow down and check if i think the guy is slow rolling me or if i think he is a calling station and i have a really weak hand. so the 20% of the time it gets past the flop i would say 5% of the time i shoot another bullet and 15% i check/fold so 15% of the time i lose around $1.

to make it easier ill say i lose $1 20% of the time and 20% of the time i win 15 cents and 60% of the time i win 45 cents. Now with these figures lets simulate 10,000 hands. 6k hands i will win 45 cents, 1.5k ill win 15 cents and 2k hands ill lose $1. Now if we work this all out ( 6000*.45) + (1500*.15)-(2000*1)= $925 is the projected winnings which is 9.25bb/100 not bad for a set gameplay that a bot could be programmed to do.


Now these are rough estimates and believe it might not be quite as high as i predict. i have around 1.5k hands and am up around $50 using this method so in actuality im only winning at around 3.5bbs right now altho i do stray from the plan on occassion which could hurt or help me i really havent figured it out yet.

Again this is only 6 max RUSH poker on full tilt. If it was any other game you wouldnt see near 20% fold rates after about 4 hands and you would get 3 bet like crazy but since ur with different ppl all the time its seems sustainable. shoot one part i forgot was 3 bet fold percentage for me pre flop which is roughly 5-7% so that makes up a bit for my over estimate

So you guys familiar with rush poker what do you think. In all honesty i think if you go higher up in limits you might actually see earning rates actually increased considering it gets a bit tighter but i have not tested dont have the bankroll yet.

also this doesnt even take into account the monster hands you get, ive also left out many other variables to keep it simple as possible

[kardmania]

durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

microstakes

hope it keeps working for you