What would you do?

[n2kfactor]

Stage #1761497691: Holdem No Limit $4 - 2009-11-24 01:10:49 (ET)
Table: LONGBOW DR (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - GJAKEY ($394 in chips)
Seat 6 - RADACH ($386.30 in chips)
Seat 1 - SAMTAM ($444.90 in chips)
Seat 2 - N2KFACTOR ($388.20 in chips)
Seat 3 - N00BMARE ($1,407.70 in chips)
Seat 4 - SEVENTHSENSE ($238.10 in chips)
RADACH - Posts small blind $2
SAMTAM - Posts big blind $4
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to N2KFACTOR [Kd Kc]
N2KFACTOR - Raises $16 to $16
N00BMARE - Folds
SEVENTHSENSE - Calls $16
GJAKEY - Folds
RADACH - Folds
SAMTAM - Calls $12
*** FLOP *** [10d 3d 9d]
SAMTAM - Checks
N2KFACTOR - Bets $38
SEVENTHSENSE - Folds
SAMTAM - All-In(Raise) $428.90 to $428.90
N2KFACTOR - ?????

Reads : Villain has negative stats(losing player) and plays 90% of his hands

Will post results tomorrow!

[Grindelvald]

Call his agressive Azz! Even if he had aces you are in a race and are making the right call

[1proangler]

This is interesting post N2k. If I'm correct in my math theres about $90 in the pot when you bet the $38 and he raises roughly $390, bringing the pot to around $550 and $390 to you to call. With the extra info you have gave saying he is playing 90% of hands, I think this is a gut call and even with the info in front of me and all the time to make my descion I still having hard time leaning one way or the other. It's hard to put players like this on a hand. He could be playing anything from any 2 diamonds to a 10/9, J/10/, Q/10 A/10, or even possibly another fish playing a Q/J and drawing super thin. If he is super aggresive player I think he would have possibly tried to reraise preflop with pocket 10's or 9's. The only hands I would fear here is the pocket 3's or two diamonds (they was suited lol) and probably junk diamonds at that. The 10 9 is another possible hand but you are still drawing to diamonds or a 3 in that situation and will probably pick up another redraw card on turn. I've almost talked myself into a call already lol. You are definitly not getting pot odds to call chasing the diamonds (if they are even good if u hit) because that would be another hand that I would think he could have Ad/x. As the percentages show the hands u have dominated here are the paint/10 hands. besides that if he is holding the Ad/x,or the 9/10 you are still in a coin flip situation i think it is a gut read and the player history has a lot to do with this call. Great post but next time make it a little easier my head hurts now!



board reads
10d 9d 3d


n2k cards Kd Kc
possible other hands and % to win

Ad 10s 51% favorite
10c 9s 52% favorite (yes u are behind but actually ahead)
Qd 10c 85% favorite
Ad-random card below 8 55% favorite
3c 3s- 36% underdog
10s 10c-36% underdog
9c 9s-36% underdog

[n2kfactor]

Yeah Grind I did call! Good analysis Angler! I forgot to mention that he was 10% aggressive. Hence, he was never bluffing here. Also, his insta-shove screamed "I have a good hand but I hate this flop" which obviously helped me eliminate diamonds. The only hands left were a set or 910. And if he did have 910, I was still a 52% favourite as you said! So I prayed, snap-called, and jumped in my seat after 3 seconds!

N2KFACTOR - All-In $334.20
SAMTAM - returned ($56.70) : not called
*** TURN *** [10d 3d 9d] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [10d 3d 9d Ac] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SAMTAM - Shows [10c 9h] (Two Pair, tens and nines)
N2KFACTOR - Shows [Kd Kc] (Flush, king high)
N2KFACTOR Collects $790.90 from main pot

[UIIIU]

man that is a tough spot i guess it really depends on what you put him on he didnt give ya odds from a call from behind but theres a ton of donks playing these tournies pushing top pair with all sorts of crap on the board. This was a losing player as you said and im saying if you believe this player makes this bet around 50% of the time when he doesnt have Ks beat than its the right call beause of your odds of drawing out if it just happens to be the 50% of the time hes leading the hand altho you still had the odds on the hand and if u get into that exact situation a million times ull be raking in the cash at around the same rate bj dealers do statistically speaking, So no one can really tell ya what the true odds were that this guy was pushing <KK but if you felt it was right around there or better than it was the right call, if you look up the guys stats and hes a passive fish then its the wrong play given the guy knows what true strength so its really a guessing game unless you have like 10k hands on the guy

[n2kfactor]

Originally Posted by UIIIU

man that is a tough spot i guess it really depends on what you put him on he didnt give ya odds from a call from behind but theres a ton of donks playing these tournies pushing top pair with all sorts of crap on the board. This was a losing player as you said and im saying if you believe this player makes this bet around 50% of the time when he doesnt have Ks beat than its the right call beause of your odds of drawing out if it just happens to be the 50% of the time hes leading the hand altho you still had the odds on the hand and if u get into that exact situation a million times ull be raking in the cash at around the same rate bj dealers do statistically speaking, So no one can really tell ya what the true odds were that this guy was pushing <KK but if you felt it was right around there or better than it was the right call, if you look up the guys stats and hes a passive fish then its the wrong play given the guy knows what true strength so its really a guessing game unless you have like 10k hands on the guy

You're absolutely correct UIIIU. When he shoved , I knew I am behind 100% of the time. However, against 9 10 (which I put him on to be precise, leaving aside the rare probability of a set), I had to make the call because I am still a 52% favorite there with 2 cards to come. Only reason I called.